ClimateandFuel

Fossil Fuel and Fuel Reserves in the world

Summary of world fuel reserves and annual consumption.

Reserves given in terra watt years (TW years) for coal, oil and gas are before losses in generating plant, engine or boiler. Reserves of uranium, solar wind etc are at the point of supply, ie the electrical output. World consumption includes burning of wood fires and peat etc. (or traditional biomass). Fusion power is omitted as it seems a long way off but resources for fusion power are in practice unlimited.

At present rate of use oil should run out in 41 years, gas in 61 and coal in 267 years.

Coal.

Coal has been the main fuel used for electrical power generation in the past. There is probably 200 years available supply in the world (1 trillion tons or 500,000 million tons of oil equivalent - Mtoe. }

Emissions from burning coal are:- Sulphur dioxide (SO2) which forms acid rain by combining with water in the air ( this can be extracted by passing through scrubbers), nitrogen oxides, mercury which builds up in fish, carbon dioxide (CO2) which is a greenhouse gas, particulates, soot and ash which can be captured in precipitators (dust collectors), finer particles can form later from oxides of sulphur and nitrogen.

Most of the emission particles and gas from combustion can and have been dealt with except CO2 but this gas could also in the future be collected and stored underground (sequestrated) at an increasein cost. See electrical page.

Natural Gas (methane.)

Known gas reserves (4800 trillion cu feet) could probably last for 50 years at the current rate of use (220 billion cu feet a day) but it is thought that there could be 7500 trillion cu feet including reserves yet to be found. There are also huge reserves (742,000 trillion cu feet ?) of 'unconventional gas' in the form of methane hydrates (solids) most inaccessible to conventional drilling in deep water, the rest unstable.

Used in gas turbines in conjunction with coal/oil in power generation, the overall efficiency of the generating process can be increased significantly to 50 - 55% making use of the rejected heat from the gas turbine. [6000 cu ft nat. gas = 1 barrel crude oil.]

The energy from gas is probably 1.6 times that from coal for the same CO2 emissions. However this does not take leakage into account. Methane is 28 times as potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2 so leakage would detract from the emission advantage.

Oil.

Present world demand is 91.4 million barrels a day, which each year is nearing 3% per year of known reserves. Reserves are put at 1.29 trillion barrels, plus 850 billion barrels in oil shale (also referred to as unconventional oil). Many expect peak production by 2015 after which it would become very expensive: but foreward needs vary between 65 and 120 million barrels by 2030 (ref 180) (see bottom of page for breakdown by country.)

Optimistic hopes are that 1 trillion barrels remain to be found. There is expected to be a peak in oil production between 2015 and 2040. After this there will be a steady decline and price rise.

Extraction from oil shale/tar oil sands is difficult and takes large quantities of water and heat in the process of extraction so increasing the CO2 emissions. For one barrel of oil, 2 tons of sand are dug up, oil extracted in giant washing machines, tailings dumped into sludge ponds, steam is ejected underground with solvents at 200 deg C.

[one ton of crude oil = 8 barrels approx.]

Summary of total world energy reserves and resources of fuel (Ref4 and 188).

Total world energy that could be extracted from reserves of coal have been put at 21,000 EJ (One EJ or Exa Joule ie 10 to the power of 18 times one Joule) or 680 TW years. At 38% this is equivalent to 260 TW years. (One TW terra watt is 1000,000 MW Megawatts.) Resources (defined as difficult and costly to extract could be 10 times this figure. )

Energy from reserves of oil are 6000 EJ (resources could be twice this figure) or 200 TW years.

(Oil from unconventional sources - other than being pumped out of the ground - oil made from other substances or a synthetic variant - oil sands. Oil shale, heavy tar, the same again or up to 5 times).

Energy from Gas reserves is put at 6000 EJ, or 200 TW years. (Reserves of gas from unconventional sources are double probably. The amount in gas hydrates and geopressurised gas is much greater.)

The Electrical Energy that could be derived from Uranium reserves is between 2000 EJ ( 65 TW years) at today's commercial prices up to 7000 EJ (230 TW years) depending on price. Thorium resources are about the same as Uranium. With Fast Breeder Reactors this could extend to 400,000 EJ (13,000 TW years) (The energy here is defined as at plant output and not as in the fuel.)

The near commercial potential of Solar, wind, hydro, tidal, wave, biomass energy is over 2000 EJ per year (or 65 TWyrs per year.) The theoretical extreme potential could be very much higher possibly 20 times if for example deserts were used to harness solar power.

The total primary energy use today is around 430 EJ per year (14 TWyrs per year) which might quadruple by year 2100 (Ref 4.)

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Oil consumption by country ( T 13 06 08 p23 news. Oil reserves)

in millions of barrels per day (bpd)

Oil reserves by country ( T 13 06 08 p23 oil reserves)