climate

An optimistic look at the future

Let us assume that past action has capped CO2 emissions by 2050 and thus limited global warming by year 2100 to an increase of 2 C average (4 C to 6 C was expected without action), so this is an optimistic picture as to how fuel use and power generation systems may evolve.

CO2 and warming

CO2 to temperature woul

By year 2050- danger level - flooding- cities moved- huge budgets for change- migrations.

By 2050 record flooding, tornados and hurricanes had become frequent and more fierce than is the past. The Netherlands, New York, London and Bangladesh were seriously flooded with millions of deaths. Drought conditions worsened; with crop failures; one billion people have water shortages; excess rain causes flooding of low lying areas; with twice the number of hurricanes and tornados.

Many capital and major cities are phasing a move from the coast to sites inland. Famines and starvation in Africa had become an annual event and a migration problem had grown with 200 million people moving away from the hotter climates to the northern latitudes of Europe, Siberia and Canada.

Year 2100 AD. CO2 400 ppm. Temp up by 2 deg C. Sea rise 1.5 metres.

CO2 emissions had peaked in 2050 due to serious introduction of alternative fuels and methods of generation resulting in stabilization of CO2 in the atmosphere at 400 ppm (parts per million.) There was continuing melting of the Greenland ice cap and the west Antarctic ice; and with the expectation that the sea level will continue to rise for many years even if the CO2 level was reduced. The Arctic had been free of summer ice since 2040 with a serious 'feed back' effect.

Little was left of tropical forests. 40% of animal species in year 2000 had become extinct by 2100 and one third of the land had become desert, affecting countries such as Africa, Australia, Spain, Italy Greece and USA. Sea infertility continued to spread and coral reefs to die.

Changes in Fuels used and Power Generation

Huge budgets to eliminate coal , gas and oil use and preserve forests.

The first main change was substitution of petrol/diesel vehicles by battery and hydrogen driven vehicles. This required infrastructures of garages and distribution with quick recharging, battery and H2 cylinder replacement. To support the requirement of charging battery driven cars a 'smart' system of transmission control and charging control to fit tightly into the pattern of varying supply and demand on transmission grid networks evolved.

The second change was the expansion of nuclear power, solar power in desert areas with transmission to industrial areas, local photo voltaics, wind, tide, hydro, waste, bio, geothermal generation and the capture and store of CO2 underground, from Coal and Gas generation systems.

The third main change was the switch from fossil fuel towards electricity in heating /cooling in conjunction with enhanced insulation in cold countries and heat pumps, efficient lighting, Photovoltaics for domestic power from the sun.

To reduce the loss of forests, timber use was restricted, with help given to countries who previously had to burn forest areas to provide for agriculture.

The main flows of energy are as follows:-

With coal, gas and oil use in decline the main power flows will be via electrical transmission and transported hydrogen generated via electricity. Hydrogen would be generated from green energy sources, solar, wind etc and high temperature reactors (HTRs.) Bio fuel will play a part.

Future sources of power and fuel flows

HV DC Supergrid plan in 2050

Storage systems expanded; and to increase diversity a plan to link countries by a HV DC transmission world wide super grid was drawn up. Thus eventually the connection from Europe across Russia and via Baring Straights to the US was installed.

The efficiency of new power stations had from 2010 generally been increased from 35% up to 45 to 55% and higher where 'pass out' heat from power stations could be used for heating or other use but most coal and gas and all oil had now been phased out of power production.

Fusion plants now supplement green sources of energy.

Fusion plants (developed from JET ITER HYPER) are now being installed to supplement wind and solar where new energy is needed. To start up a fusion plant a large amount of power is needed.

Batwing aircraft, Maglev trains and remote controlled military aircraft.

Passenger aircraft are now twice as efficient than in year 2000 and restricted to long hauls. Efficiency results from the development of an "open flow" engine and by using a 'Batwing' design, where the housing of passengers is in a giant delta wing of which the surface area friction has been reduced. Biomass fuel is now widely used.

Large use in military aircraft is made of remote control. (139).

Intercity travel in rich countries is now by subsidized rail and "Maglevs" (magnetic levitation - - train running on a cushion of air at 300 mph - 500 kph.)

A less optimistic outlook

CO2 emissions can be determined with confidence but the link between CO2 in the atmosphere and temperature rise is difficult to determine accurately. There could be a wide variation. Also the actions assumed above to limit emissions are optimistic. The population rise could be greater than assumed and the speed of development / growth of non industrialized nations could be such that green alternatives are not introduced fast enough and reliance coal oil and gas continues for longer.

The optimistic picture above is bad enough but there is a risk that widespread starvation, migration, spread of desert, loss of land for food, loss of forest and sea rise would eventually produce quite unacceptable conditions.

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This assumes that the rise in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere is limited by 2050 and then decreases, which is optimistic.

The level of CO2 would continue to build up unless overall CO2 can be drawn down (ie where absorption by the planet is greater than emissions.).

There is a delay in the effect of this extra 'blanket of CO2' on temperature which continues to rise even as CO2 emissions are falling. There is a wide variation on possible values.

ClimateandFuel

How the future use of fuels and electricity power production could evolve in the future with an optimistic look ahead to year 2100 AD.

An optimistic look at the future

Let us assume that past action has capped CO2 emissions by 2050 and thus limited global warming by year 2100 to an increase of 2 C average (4 C to 6 C was expected without action), so this is an optimistic picture as to how fuel use and power generation systems may evolve.

CO2 and warming

By year 2050- danger level - flooding- cities moved- huge budgets for change- migrations.

Many capital and major cities are phasing a move from the coast to sites inland. Famines and starvation in Africa had become an annual event and a migration problem had grown with 200 million people moving away from the hotter climates to the northern latitudes of Europe, Siberia and Canada.

Year 2100 AD. CO2 400 ppm. Temp up by 2 deg C. Sea rise 1.5 metres.

Little was left of tropical forests. 40% of animal species in year 2000 had become extinct by 2100 and one third of the land had become desert, affecting countries such as Africa, Australia, Spain, Italy Greece and USA. Sea infertility continued to spread and coral reefs to die.

Changes in Fuels used and Power Generation

Huge budgets to eliminate coal , gas and oil use and preserve forests.

The second change was the expansion of nuclear power, solar power in desert areas with transmission to industrial areas, local photo voltaics, wind, tide, hydro, waste, bio, geothermal generation and the capture and store of CO2 underground, from Coal and Gas generation systems.

The third main change was the switch from fossil fuel towards electricity in heating /cooling in conjunction with enhanced insulation in cold countries and heat pumps, efficient lighting, Photovoltaics for domestic power from the sun.

To reduce the loss of forests, timber use was restricted, with help given to countries who previously had to burn forest areas to provide for agriculture.

The main flows of energy are as follows:-

With coal, gas and oil use in decline the main power flows will be via electrical transmission and transported hydrogen generated via electricity. Hydrogen would be generated from green energy sources, solar, wind etc and high temperature reactors (HTRs.) Bio fuel will play a part.

HV DC Supergrid plan in 2050

Storage systems expanded; and to increase diversity a plan to link countries by a HV DC transmission world wide super grid was drawn up. Thus eventually the connection from Europe across Russia and via Baring Straights to the US was installed.

The efficiency of new power stations had from 2010 generally been increased from 35% up to 45 to 55% and higher where 'pass out' heat from power stations could be used for heating or other use but most coal and gas and all oil had now been phased out of power production.

Fusion plants now supplement green sources of energy.

Fusion plants (developed from JET ITER HYPER) are now being installed to supplement wind and solar where new energy is needed. To start up a fusion plant a large amount of power is needed.

Batwing aircraft, Maglev trains and remote controlled military aircraft.

Large use in military aircraft is made of remote control. (139).

Intercity travel in rich countries is now by subsidized rail and "Maglevs" (magnetic levitation - - train running on a cushion of air at 300 mph - 500 kph.)

A less optimistic outlook

The optimistic picture above is bad enough but there is a risk that widespread starvation, migration, spread of desert, loss of land for food, loss of forest and sea rise would eventually produce quite unacceptable conditions.

In the Stern report Nov 2006 to the UK government the cost of introducing low CO2 power generation was put at 1% of GDP now each year. The cost of carbon was put at $85 a tonne of CO2 in this study.

The economic case for decreasing global greenhouse emissions is that the cost of doing nothing would amount to 5% of GDP (Gross domestic product) each year now and for ever but could extend to 20% of GDP each year.

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