An optimistic look at the year 2100 AD
Let us assume that past action has limited warming by year 2100 to an increase of 3 C average (4 C to 6 C was expected without action.). Assume also that nations had agreed and politicians had today taken the actions recommended by the UN, IPCC backed up by scientists in the know at the beginning of the century; so this is an optimistic picture of year 2100 as to how fuel use and power generation systems may evolve.
The main flows of energy pre fusion could be like this:-
With coal, gas and oil use in decline the main power flows will be via electrical transmission and transported hydrogen generated via electricity and high temperature reactors (HTRs.)
Coal and gas use will eventually be phased out first and nuclear power will extend a long way into the future. Fusion power, probably with exceedingly large units, should eventually come into the picture especially when uranium/thorium resources begin to be limited although by then sun, wind, tidal, bio, geothermal, hydro and other green alternatives and an infrastructure of transmission and hydrogen may seem a cheaper solution than building fusion reactors. This all assumes that population expansion has not brought other insurmountable problems with it.
By year 2050- flooding- cities moved- huge budgets for change- migrations.
By 2050 record flooding, tornados and hurricanes had resulted in an international 'wake up call' for those still complacent about global warming. The Netherlands, New York, London and Bangladesh were seriously flooded with millions of deaths. Drought conditions worsened; with crop failures; one billion people have water shortages; excess rain causes flooding of low lying areas; with twice the number of hurricanes.
Many capital and major cities are phasing a move from the coast to sites inland above 2000 year sea levels. Famines and starvation in Africa had become an annual event and a migration problem had grown with 200 million people moving away from the hotter climates to the northern latitudes of Europe, Siberia and Canada.
Year 2100 AD. CO2 440 ppm. Temp up by 3 deg C. Sea rise 1.5 meters.
CO2 emissions had peaked in 2030 due to serious introduction of alternative fuels and methods of generation resulting in stabilization of CO2 in the atmosphere at 480 ppm (parts per million.) The earth's temperature had risen by 3 C and the sea level by 1.5 metres, with continuing melting of the Greenland ice cap and the west Antarctic ice; and with the expectation that the sea level will continue to rise for many years even if the CO2 level was reduced. The Arctic had been free of summer ice since 2040.
Little was left of tropical forests. 40% of animal species in year 2000 had become extinct by 2100 and one third of the land had become desert, affecting countries such as Africa, Australia, Spain, Italy Greece and USA. Sea infertility continued to spread and coral reefs to die.
Huge budgets in 2040 to eliminate coal , gas and oil use and preserve forests.
All leading countries had put in huge budgets to capture and store CO2 underground, install green generation systems and to eliminate fossil fuel from power production. To reduce the loss of forests, timber use was restricted, with large cost increases and help given to inhabitants who previously had to burn forest areas to provide for agriculture.
HV DC Supergrid plan in 2040
A plan to link countries by a HV DC transmission world wide super grid to provide diversity was drawn up. Thus eventually the connection from Europe across Russia and via Baring Straights to the US was installed with plans to extend across the Atlantic via Iceland.
Plankton growth scheme to draw down carbon
Schemes to encourage wide plankton growth in the seas to draw down CO2 (which would fall to the ocean floor as carbon locked up) were paid for by the richer countries.
Energy saving by individuals needed incentives.
Plans to encourage energy saving were not widely successful until governments provided the necessary incentives. Thus restrictions limited cars in many towns and surrounding areas to battery or hydrogen fuel cell alternatives and large subsidies and tax incentives encouraged the use of domestic generation by photovoltaics, wind generation with battery storage; heating using heat pumps and general economic measures. Many houses are thus on balance self sufficient in energy, most nearly so with the balance of power drawn from or regenerated to the electrical grid.
Energy via electricity and hydrogen by 2100.
Practically all energy used in the world is now generated locally or transmitted via electricity or hydrogen generated from electricity and High Temp Reactors (HTRs). Transport runs on fuel cells fueled by hydrogen and battery.
The efficiency of new power stations had from 2010 generally been increased from 35% up to 45 to 55% but most coal and gas and all oil had now been phased out of power stations, as well as domestic and industrial heating. Carbon sequestration had been widespread in coal and gas power stations but this had limits and is being phased out.
Wind, solar, tidal, hydro, wave, geothermal, nuclear, IGCC, CCGT dominate.
Fusion plants now more realistic but need power for start up.
Fusion plants (developed from JET ITER HYPER) are now being installed on a small scale and may supplement wind and solar where new energy is needed, after a research and development program stretching over 150 years. To start up a fusion plant a large amount of power is needed and to compete very large units are built.
Battery and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles, Bio limited, restrictions on petrol, electorate reeducated.
Because of the problem of compromising range of battery cars with size of battery and car capacity, battery cars were introduced into urban areas widely when use and parking of non green cars was banned in towns, and tax/subsidy incentives. This enabled re-education of drivers to accept low acceleration and speeds. The range before charging or 'battery swap' varies from 100 to 300 miles (160 to 480 km). A subsidized battery swapping infrastructure was set up in many countries and recharging points at car parks, cafes, garages and restaurants. On board petrol/diesel recharging engines (hybrid) were also an initial option and retained in countries with bio fuel.
Hydrogen fuel vehicles with fuel cells/electric drive compete with battery cars and are also used for buses and local trains. Hydrogen is generated near HTRs and from wind and solar sources, so providing new industries in countries with day long sun.
Batwing aircraft, Maglev trains and remote controlled military aircraft.
Passenger aircraft are now twice as efficient than in year 2000 and used mainly for very long hauls. Efficiency results from the development of an "open flow" engine and by using a 'Batwing' design, where the housing of passengers is in a giant delta wing of which the surface area friction has been reduced. Biomass fuel is now widely used.
Intercity travel in rich countries is now by subsidized rail and "Maglevs" (magnetic levitation - - train running on a cushion of air at 300 mph - 500 kph.) All military aircraft are now remote controlled (139).
General Comment and thoughts on the optimistic outlook above.
Adopting severe measures to enforce CO2 reduction could have a profound impact on economies and investments. The whole edifice of equity ownership and pension value is supported by continual expansion and growth of companies to justify the share rating (P/E ratio) necessary to attract investment. If this were to stall, pension and investment schemes would be at risk which does not seem to be attractive politically.
The hope is of course that governments can agree to spend the extra to move over to the zero carbon electrical generation and hydrogen fuel systems and these can quickly be installed with the large change in infrastructures. A boom in building the green alternatives, very necessary to solve the immediate problem, will provide new opportunities for investment.
If CO2 could as a result of these measures on balance be drawn down from the atmosphere, green, nuclear, hydrogen and possibly fusion power might enable continued growth with minimal economic damage; although the problem of expanding population remains with the limit on planet surface.
.JPG)