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Statements reports and comment.
Weather forecasting - David Shukman June 2013
Forecasts can be quite accutrate in the short term but long term forecasting remains full of difficulties. See more
UK - RWE and Eon pull out of new nuclear power station buildings.
With Scotland planning to go non nuclear also this leads to a problem with future UK power station planning. The Choice of reactor is the AP 1000 Westinghouse (Japan) and Areva (French) design. It is now up to EDF.
China emits 6.8 Tonnes CO2 per person. US 16.9 - 20 per person
The European commissions Joint Research Units Centre (JRC) reports. Mr Xia says that China wants to reach a peak in emissins ASAP .See more.
Newly released information confirms that the earth is really warming.
The Climate Research Unit has made available nearly all the raw data from the worrds 5000+ weather sations. Berkley Earth Project Uk met office and NASA appear to agree. Announcement Oct 2011
CO2 emission growth 5.6% in 2010 and increasing.
BP's annual statistical review ggives the rate of CO2 emission increase at 5.6% in 2010 largely due to the post crisis industrialisation of coal dependent nations. China now accounts for 2.3% OECD countries 1.6% and non OECD 1.7%
Typical costs of improvements. UK. Source Energy Saving Trust.
|
Cost £ |
Saving £ |
Cavity insulation |
250 |
110 |
External wall insulation |
10,500 |
385 |
Loft insulation |
150 |
150 |
Draught proofing |
100 |
25 |
Condensing boiler |
2-3000 |
225 |
Double glazing |
2-6000 |
130 |
Agreement of sorts at cancun Mexico.
194 countries including China, USA have agreed
1) That Science shows that we must act to curb global warming to 2degC rise..
2) Make deep cuts in CO2 emissions, but no target has been set.
3) Raise money ($64 billion)o help poorer countries cut greenhouse gases and reduce deforestisation. Read more.
Nasa's Goddard Institute for space studies reports Oct 2009 to Sept 2010 as the warmest since studies began.
Since 1970s summer ice in arctic has shrunk by 2.4m sq km an area the size of Greenland, resulting in a feedback effect. Global temp averaged 14.52 C. Average temp 1960-90 ws 14.0 C. See past climates
Report by the Zoological Society of London and WWF
says that at present exploitation of land and oceans by 2030 the equivalent of two planets will be needed to produce enough food , materials and water and to absorb CO2 due to western lifestyles. By 2050 if the population then 9.2 billion, ate a typical malaysian diet 1.3 planets would be needed, if a typical Italian diet, 2 planets would be needed.
Nuclear waste problem to be almost solved?
Areva and University of Texas in Austin are developing a method of destroying 99% of waste from a PWR. (T 22 3 10 p45.)
Methane trapped under permafrost escaping.
Sub- sea permafrost should act as a cap to prevent leakage, but there is a growing risk that melting of the permafrost is releasing methane underneath. Methane is 25 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and this could escalate global warming See 'feedback' mechanisms that accelerate global warming.
World warming due to human activity challenged by some scientists (see P8 news ST 14 2 2010)
Facts are:- CO2 in air increase is from 250 to 380 ppm since 1850; sea has risen by 5 inches since 1972; snow proportion on land has decreased from 38% to 35% (due to glaciers and greenland melt); world temperature has risen by 0.7 deg C in 80 years.
The challenge is how much of the temp rise is due to human activity; is the prediction that temperature will rise 1 to 6 deg C by 2100 due to humans realistic or should it be how much future temp rise is set in motion due to the extra blanket of CO2 around the earth?
or is it should we take the risk and not bother or should we make absolutely sure and eliminate the risk?
Copenhagen - non binding 2% limit of temperature rise (above pre industrialisation level) agreement.
Emission cuts of 25 - 40% by 2020 was IPCC recommendation in 1990 and but was not agreed. Cuts of 50% by all but 80% by rich countries by 2050 needed. Brown wants every country to state their emission targets by end of Jan. What does 2%temp rise actually mean?
Positive results of conference are that US, China and most of the 192 countries have agreed the 2% temp rise limit, help to undeveloped countries also put on table and transparency recognised as part of the deal. More work needs to be done.
Sea levels set to rise by 1.4m (4 1/2 feet)by 2100 displacing 10% world population. (Dec 2009)
Latest report from Scientific committee on Antarctic research. Only chance to stop it is to reduce emissions quickly. Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the UN IPCC proposes that CO2 is 'sucked out' of atmosphere. (see exotic page.) and (carbon capture).
China plan to reduce carbon emissions by 40-45% from GDP by 2020
This means that although the emissions will rise in absolute terms (with growth) the proportional amount will fall. Most of China's power generation is from coal fired power stations. Report+video
Indias National Action Plan on Climate Change
Increase in generation to 535 GW by 2030 but 56% by renewables / nuclear / CSS. see India page.
UK future scenarios by 2020 - ofgem report
1 Green transition+ rapid economic recovery. Prices increase 23% or
2Green stimulus with slow economic recovery. Prices rise by 14% or
3 Dash for energy-- high growth. Prices rise by 60% then fall back or
4) Slow economic recovery low investment Prices rise by 22%
Report summary
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Transport miscellaneous Hardware Solutions
UK Huhne - replace 30m cars etc with electric - reduce greenhouse gas by 80% by 2050
The plan is to replace 30 m cars, vans etc mainly with electric powed vehicles that can be recharged from low carbon electricity - wind, nuclear etc. Road transport produces 130m tons of CO2 pa (1/4 nations emissions) which must be reduced to 20-40m tons by 2050. Electricity capacity to increase from 75,000MW to over 100,000 MW by 2050 to meet this.(see page 'Plan UK 2050' put forward some years ago)
Germany to invest in research and infrastructure for electric cars rather than individual subsidies.
RWE says 86,000 electricars in London in 2015 and 800,000 in UK by 2020. more about RWE electric cars
Energy use comparison study by the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership published May 2011 funded by gvernemnt and car industry shows CO2 produced in 150 km lifetime for a medium size car as follows:-
Petrol 24 Tons of CO2 of which 5.6 is production.
Electric 23.1 Tons CO2 of which 12.6 is production. This includes a second battery in the life. See car page
Airline investing in bio jet fuel from Algae.
Sir Richard Branson is joining Unilever in investing in Solazyme to develop oil based products for use in goods ranging from biofuels to cosmetics and foods. ( see bio page.)
UK -government funding PV Solar panels for households. April 2010.
UK houses, if suitable, can now have PV solar panels installed where the electricity generated can be used free or fed back to the grid and the householder refunded under a 'Feed -in Tariff' scheme. The cost is either funded by extra government payments which should pay for the scheme in say 12 years or free from a company which receives these extra payments.
Smaller cars best way to reduce emissions quickly.
As price of rare earth elements and platinum, used in batteries for battery vehicles will rise due to demand a report from Oxford University's Smith School of Enterprise and Environment concludes that in the short term we should concentrate on small and efficient cars.
Hawaii, first US state to create transport infrastructure for battery cars.
Motorists will be able to buy 'mileage plans' enabling recharging and battery swaps for long distances. Recharging from renewable such as wind generation to reduce dependence on oil.
Giant kite like sail for ships
Stephen Wrage has invented a Skysail 5,000 sq m surface area to be let up to 300 m to drag merchant vessels saving up to 50% fuel. Sail will work up to 50 deg from wind. Could be used on 60,000 vessels and save 142 mill tonnes CO2 pa. (p49 T15 dec 07)
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16 tornadoes one tonne co2 per km?.
Scientific Reports
Bali agreement dec 15 Dec 07 lacks detail
After anger, tears, US isolation, India's proposal to agree to agree agreed without specifics.
Deal for world bank to oversee pilot scheme to discourage deforestation also fund to help poorer nations.
UK to cut carbon emissions by 25% 2020 and 60% by 2050 (should be 80% say scientists and worldwide.) See Global page for problem.
IPCC report 4 5 07 costs 0.12 world GDP to limit emissions.
Temp rise of 2.4 by 2050 if emissions limited to peak at 2015. Or 2.4-2.8 C in if emissions peak at 2020 or 2.8-3.2 C if peak at 2030. Inaction 6C rise in 100 years. (p28 news T 5 5 07)
IPCC warn temp rise 2-3C by 2050
40% animal species face extinction
200m people could be forced from native lands due to rising sea levels, droughts - many facing malnutrition and heat stress.
By 2099 one third of land surface
risk drought, 100s million will be unable to grow food
Alpine ski resorts destroyed
Humanity should adapt to change and cut emissions say IPCC. (p 9 news ST 1 4 07)
White paper on energy UK 7 07
Need to limit CO2 to 450ppm but very difficult, 550ppm possible but this too high for a stable world. Cost to limit emissions only 1% world GDP
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