BLOG statements reports and comments.
Obama manifesto $ 150 billion spend on clean energy.
The objective is to free the US from oil imports, generate 25% from renewables by 2025 and develop a local plug in hybrid motor industry.
Lord Turner report due 1st Dec - meeting 80% less carbon by 2050
UK needs to boost renewables (wind etc), nuclear and carbon capture and storage for coal stations (CCS.) Electricity use will increase for electric car charging and gas heating replacement Times report. Also see future page
Rich nations should spend $4 billion over 5 years. Eliasch report commissioned by Brown UK. (Oct 08)
We should aim to halve deforestation by 2020 and forests to become carbon neutral by 2030 otherwise impossible to avoid damage to climate costing $1 trillion by 2100. Eliasch report
Brown UK wants to reduce CO2 by 80% by 2050 which includes air travel and ships. (Sept 08)
By increasing wind, tidal, nuclear power, CO2 capture and storage, changes to transport fuel (battery and H2) and efficiency.
Data banks consume 1% electrical power - could rise to equal aircraft emissions by 2020. (p22 T 15 9 08)
Google have a plan to position data banks 10 km offshore in barges and use wave power to suck up cold water from depths to cool the computers.
Large Hadron Collider - CERN - benefits and risk.
Shut down due to Helium leak. Magnets heated up above the minus 271 deg C required for superconductivity. Expected restart now delayed until April 2009.
Three possible benefits of this experiment have been stated, advances in cancer tretament, information into cloud formation due to bombardment by cosmic rays and a potentially radical new way of dealing with nuclear waste.
More benefits from Director General CERN
Professor Otto E Rossler, univ of Tubingen, Germany queries the belief that there is NO RISK that the earthbound mini holes expected in the experiment when particles are collided near to the speed of light will evaporate.See abstract from professor Ossler 27 Sept 07
Durham university solar car in Plano to Calgary race
Dusc 08 car top speed 62 mph, can run for 5 hrs on battery power, even without sunshine, 9 sq metres solar panels on car surface, lead acid batteries 5kwh storage, steel chassis covered with carbon composite aerodynamic shell. http://www.dur.ac.uk/dusc/ one of 17 iin race.
Blair - 50% cut global emissions by 2050 "in reach." (ST 29 6 08 p23)
US 5% cuts by 2020 but falls short.China 20% by 2020. Europe's emissions now static. Immense task but increase in coal power China, India etc must be matched by carbon capture and storage.
Arctic ice melt could now as earlier than 2025 & could be 2013
Marika Holland computer estimates 18 months ago now being born out by measurements (ST 29 6 08 p17). Two feedback processes to worsen situation, loss of ice reflective surface and melt of permafrost etc releasing methane djt.
Zero carbon by 2050, creating 160,000 jobs cost £100 billion
John Hutton Business secretary outlines plans for UK 26 6 08
BP chief on oil crisis (T 12 06 08 p53 buis.)
Global production down to 81.53 million barrels a day (bpd). Consump up to 85.22 mill bpd. 41 years supply left at 1.24 trillion barrels globally. Increasing coal use most concern - Greenpeace.
Oceans loosing oxygen due to warming (ST 18 5 08)
Global warming, causing a depletion in oxygen in oceans, around India, Africa, Central America, Baltic and Black Sea with fishvanishing. See Warming oceans kill sea life
Call for action to save worlds "Air conditioning system".
The cost of ceasing to cut down rain forests ( deforestation) would only be 1 % of all world insurance premiums (30 bn) based on Stern report figures. Prince Charles (UK) interview bbc news 15 5 08 calls for industrialised countries to provide a mechanism to make it worth while for rain forest countries to cease logging etc and retain this resource, vital to replenish world oxygen by drawing down CO2. International news statement
Cease putting the clocks back in winter (UK) to GMT?
To sync. with Europe in winter would save fuel - it saved coal in both world wars - and could now surface again fronted by Tim Yeo (6 4 08) See.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/people/ewg/garnsey_gmt_policy_191007
Temp/CO2 projection argument (see ref 171 Wilson&Burgh) (20 3 08)
Comment - Wilson and Burgh say that '- although there is increasing certainty of global warming, the claimed correlation between earth's temperature and CO2 level - -has often been misinterpreted- - in Al Gore's CD and others - -' I doubt that these observations by two prominent 'alternative fuel' engineers add much to the debate. It could be worse than projections show (as well as not so worse) but it is the level of risk to the planet that is unknown not that there is no risk. Fuel is limited and efforts to introduce alternatives to fossil fuels is surely a top priority.
When alternative fuels start to 'take off' causing the price of fossil fuels to fall we will need more than market forces to curb a reversal. djt.
Low Carbon economy 'will pay its way' 19 2 08 IET Savoy Place.
The 2008 Turing Lecture speaker James Martin says that 'carbageddon' can be averted if developed nations rebuild their principal industries which will become a prime economic driver with huge profits rather than prohibitively costly.
UK Bill to reduce C 80% by 2050 (cf 1990) 60% min legal 26 - 32 % by 2020
Global policy must satisfy 3 principles to obtain international support:- 1) It must lead to cuts on scale necessary 2) Must implement in most cost effective way 3) Must be equitable to poor countries, to play their part and receive help. ( p19 T comment 22 2 08)
Dr Jim Hansen "we must aim for 300-350ppm"
Director of Nasa's Goddard space science labs warns that new research shows that we should be aiming to reduce carbon in the air from 380 ppm to between 300 - 350 ppm, more like pre industrial level. To do this coal burning must be phased out quickly. (ST news review 10 2 08.) Amounts of CO2 projected.
Ex Shell chief says that new cars using more than 35 mpg should be banned in the EU
Comment. To reduce CO2 and pollution generally it is likely that forced measures such as this, restrictions on vehicle use in towns and public car parks will gather momentum over the next 20 years. Hybrids, battery cars and hydrogen fuel cell cars will not face such restrictions. Cost measures alone are unlikely to be successful, partly as if the measures do work to reduce demand on oil, market forces will in turn undermine those measures. djt
Davos 2008 Shell chief Oil & gas demand to outstrip supply 2015
A' blueprints scenario' where 90% CO2 in power stations is captured in developed countries and 50% in non developed by 2050 unlikely without global acceptance of carbon trading. (T p61 25 1 08)
EU target to reduce CO2 by 20% average by 2020 cf 1990 levels (ref 246)
Binding targets to reduce CO2 emissions proportioned out as 15% uk, 23% France, 18% Germany, 49% Sweden, 15% poland, 20% Spain, 31% Portugal etc. See UK page
House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee (UK) (21 1 08)
Committee of 16 MPs state that Bio fuels should only be encouraged where there are benefits overall to fossil fuels, considering loss of carbon sinks. (ref 166)
Cera peak oil to be due to demand not supply. (p63 Times 16 Jan 08).
Cambridge Energy Research Association (CERA) concludes that the rate of oil decline (in supply) is now only 4.5% pa, ( previous thinking 8%pa), thus output will continue to rise over next 10 years. Peak in oil production likely to be due to demand not supply. Supply could increase from 87 million barrels a day (bpd) now to 100 by 2017. Unconventional oil eg from tar oil sands could allow oil to peak at 112 million bpd. with average over 100bpd.
Aircraft condensation trails and NO2 particularly harmful (T 16 Jan 08 p19)
Trails cause cirrus cloud which traps heat. Nitrous dioxide NO2 forms ozone a greenhouse gas. Solutions, reduce height by 2000 m reduces trails by 45%, (but increases burn by 6%) increase burn temperature to decrease NO2. British Airways is supporting research. (refs 153)
Prof Sir David King and the UK Government (ref 242. ST review 13 Jan)
Having now ceased his post as Chief Scientific Advisor to the government David King says that he had great difficulty explaining climate change to Tony Blair and other politicians and in particular getting them to realise that Nuclear power must be part of the electrical generation mix. He puts this down to lack of scientific education in the courses taken by these people (legal etc.) and now aims to address the 'deficit' in non scientific courses at Oxford. If it wasn't for the need for his advice in the foot and mouth epidemic in 2001 which resulted in the eradication of the disease, after which his department began to be taken seriously, he doubts that they would have listened to his advice on climate and nuclear generation.
Comment on new nuclear stations to be built in UK (10 Jan 07)
Plans to build more nuclear stations in UK to replace existing announced by UK government. Past governments ceased nuclear power construction in the 70s-80s to an extent that the UK has lost much of its engineering expertise. This must now be rebuilt. It will probably take 10 years before new power is available, 6 for planning and 4 for construction. New designs are a vast improvement on old existing stations in efficiency, inherent safety, nuclear waste, standardisation, strength. djt
Engineering solutions to solve climate change possible but need herculean task to implement
Letter (p 16 T 18 dec 07) from chief exec's. R Acad Engrs, I Civil E, I Mech E, I Chem E. (UK). Reference to Sterns report Nov 06 saying that" - -doing nothing will be far more expensive than taking action now - - ". They say:-
"- - -Engineering solutions to solve climate change technically possible to meet targets (Kyoto - Bali) but to bring solutions to market will in quantities required is Herculean task - -it will require massive investment in development and commercialization. - - Many solutions still in development, solar, wind, wave, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage. - - "
Tropics move 500 miles towards poles since 1979
Profound effect on world weather systems. 1350 sq miles become desert in Nigeria each year (p30 T 3 12 07)
Underground coal fires in China
Thousands of natural underground fires cover 720 sq km, consume 220 million tonnes coal each year & produce 1% of all CO2 from fossil fuels, same as all US vehicles. One 50 yr fire put out after 3 years in Terak, Xinjiang. (T 22 11 07 p51 and China page)
CO2 cost of one packet of crisps 2 1/2 times weight of the packet itself
Walkers are putting a lable on each packet showing that manufacture costs 75gms of CO2.
'Population likely to be bigger problem' article says.
Melanie Reid writes p19 Times 29 10 07 "...I admire the chinese, they saw the problem and did something..." in a well balanced article "A world overwhelmed with hungry little mouths."
My comment is that we ignore this problem as any solution is difficult, unpleasant and certainly politically unacceptable. Also I suspect that future population projections are usually under estimated. At the rate over the last century the population would rise from 6.7 Billion to 28B by 2100 and 102 Billion by 2200, and this ignores medical advances and longer lives. First prize for the solution. DJT.
Yr 2050, 9bn people, using 2X energy of today.
Only 30% renewables realistic cf 1% renewables today. Energy efficiency the solution, 65% coal PS 80% car 92% aero takeoff. (CE Royal Dutch Shell T business 25 6 07 p40)
Carbon cost must double to 40 Euros per ton for CO2 capture to be competitive. Buis news T (11 5 07)
Top : Home
.JPG)
