Al Gore, former US vice president, said that a 'Blitz spirit' was required to make the world aware of the threat of climate change. He spoke at the School World Forum on Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford, sponsored by 'The Times.' This page outlines a practical plan for the UK. The main features apply to most other countries.
The Plan below is substantially plan M Ref 9 by Prof. David Mackay (applicable to UK.) The main features are as follows:-
1. Phase out petrol and diesel driven vehicles with battery electric vehicles (with regenerative breaking); introduce a nationwide infrastructure of quick charging and/or battery swap scheme; electrify public transport. As battery cars are currently expensive, cost incentives to use them and disincentives to use fossil cars, such as parking restrictions would be necessary. Bio fuel may be included for some uses.
The fuel energy for vehicle power currently used in the UK is 100 GW average over a year; so assuming that cars are 20% efficient and to take growth to 2050 into account, the 'electrical' vehicle load in 2050 would be 50GWe a year on average, of which 45 GW would be electrical battery charging and 5 GW bio fuel.
The storage capacity of batteries could (in bulk) counteract the intermittency of wind/solar etc. by recharging batteries in periods of light power demand or low generation from wind turbines and other renewables, with cost incentives and smart metering. At times of high output from renewables and/or low power demand, charging could be free and at times of low renewables output in the day and/or high demand it would be charged for. The upper limit of battery power from 30 million cars could at 2 kw a battery be 60 GW.
2. Replace gas/oil/coal heating with electrically driven heat pumps. Add solar water heating on roofs. Already under way are low heat loss requirements for buildings under the Building Regulations for new buildings and extensions and thus the fuel energy of 100 GW a year heating load now would by 2050 be replaced by an 'electrical' load of 75 GWe a year.
3. Low energy bulbs and LED's will be used for lighting, turn off devices for electrical loads, TV, chargers etc. There will be an increase in 'gadgets' by 2050 which will probably offset the savings yet to be made. Thus the current electrical grid load of 45 GW average a year has been assumed for the same to remain constant up to 2050 (not including power for cars and current fossil fuel heating.)
The (mostly) electrical power generation required in 2050 (including lighting, heating, factories, commercial, and transport will thus in 2050 be 120 GW.
The 'green' generation in the British Isles itself (wind, tide, etc) plus the non electrical energy (wood/miscanthus, etc) would take up a considerable and noticeable area of the limited space in the UK. Part of the plan therefore is to import Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) generation transmitted from the Sahara, use 'Clean coal' (carbon capture and storage) generation and Nuclear power mainly uses existing sites. The latter three power sources do not take up excessive land (in the UK), so any of these three could be increased to reduce the space taken up by alternative green options.
The plan to meet the 120 GW (average a year) generation by 2050 would require the following:-
Eight Concentrated Solar Power farms in desert states 20 km in diameter (Libya Tunisia Morocco Algeria )(based on 10w/sq m) transmitted via 20 HVDC lines 2000 km long.
Land for HVDC lines through Europe, 16,000 sq km.
Reduction to a quarter of today's coal fired power stations , or less co- firing with biomass with efficiencies increased to 45% and with carbon capture and storage.
Nuclear stations. 60% more output than the past maximum in the UK. Expand on existing sites. 13 sites of 3.3 GW capacity.
Tide. Severn Barrage 550 sq km plus two 400 sq km tidal lagoons one off Blackpool and one in the Wash, plus 15000 tidal turbines over 2000 sq km Pentland Firth (North of Scotland), North Irish sea, off Anglesey and off the Isle of Wight.
Wave. One 65 km mile line of wave generators off the west coast of Scotland and and another 65 km line between the Pembrokeshire coast and Devon, to catch Atlantic waves. 2500 Pelarmis or equivalent.
100 new municipal waste incinerators, producing 30 MW each; also this reduces land fill and therefore reduces methane emitted to atmosphere.
Wood/Miscanthus 31,000 sq km, shown in dark green on the map below.
Heat pumps from half of buildings has been assumed.
Solar panels on all roofs for hot water, 1 sq m pp, 60 sq km in total..
Bio fuels. 30.000 sq km, shown as light green on the map (ref 9).
Photovoltaic farms. 1000 sq km along the south coast, 20 sq km each.
Wind power. 52 onshore. Also 29 off shore wind farms 100 sq km in area each (based on 2.2 w/sqm averaged; windmills at 5 X dia spacing.)
15 pump storage schemes in Scotland and Wales ( four existing at present) to meet quick changes of 10 GW in power with variations in wind etc.
Map of the British isles showing areas required for generation
Available energy from green sources world wide.
Much depends on the standard of living achieved and the extent to which other countries might adopt more expensive green options. The maximum practical sources of green energy in giga watts (excepting CSP in deserts) is probably as follows:-
Wind |
6000
|
Hydro |
1600
|
Tide |
60
|
Wave |
150
|
Geothermal |
100
|
Solar Hot Water |
100
|
This is probably half the world demand in 2050 and could be made up with Nuclear, Solar CSP in deserts and clean coal (carbon capture and storage.)
There will be large variations per country. Iceland may be able to meet all its needs with Geothermal and Hydro. Brazil may continue to use bio for cars. France may continue with a high proportion of nuclear power. The USA has its own source of CSP in its deserts.
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